Auto sales figures for the month of June are in and, while most manufacturers are still posting gains and while there are some surprising bright spots, the pace appears to be slowing and some analysts believe the market may be hitting a new, lower set point.

The biggest surprise was Chrysler’s 36% jump over June of 2009. Large increases in fleet sales may account for the huge boost, though a break out of those figures is not currently available. Also, last year Chrysler was still reeling from some of its worst sales figures in fifty years. Whatever the reason, up is always better than down and the company outperformed the market by a wide margin. Ford showed the second largest increase with a 14% gain and GM came in third, up 12%.

Among the Japanese makes, Mazda did best with a 33% increase followed by Subaru at 16% and Nissan at 11%. Toyota and Honda both are off the industry pace, showing increases of 6.8% and 6.2%, respectively, and both saw market share decline once again in June.

Korean makes Hyundai and Kia are reported together and posted a strong 28% gain and grew market share by almost a full percentage point, as well.

Overall, U.S. sales were up 14.4% over June of 2009, a respectable figure but below the faster pace the market had been showing earlier this year. Two possible explanations are offered: either the recovery is slackening (or worse, headed for a double-dip) or auto sales are returning to a lower “normal” annual rate far below the 16-17 million unit pace it was hitting just a few years ago.

--M.D.